Wednesday, 01 August 2012 02:00

Adaptation to Climate Change: a View from Latin America

 

A substantial rise in temperature is inevitable this century, and structured adaptation processes are therefore vital for Latin America. These processes include any type of adjustment to natural or human systems, or activities in response to the expected changes in climate variables (IPCC,2007).

The scientific consensus suggests, with a major degree of uncertainty, that:

  • Atmospheric concentrations of 450 ppm of CO2e are, with 80% probability, consistent with an increase in the mean annual global temperature of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
  • Atmospheric concentrations of 550 ppm of CO2e are, with almost 70% probability, consistent with an increase in global temperature of 3°C (Stern, 2008).
  • Concentrations are currently estimated at 392 ppm of CO2 and 439 ppm of CO2e.

 

Given this climate scenario, the available evidence indicates that processes of adaptation are standard practice in economic activities and ecosystems, above all with regard to climate volatility, and even as a natural consequence of a more efficient economy. Although evidence regarding such adaptation processes is still preliminary and fragmented, and even reveals contradictory results (IDB-ECLAC-WWF, 2012), there is a broad portfolio of adaptation options with highly differing consequences and results. For example, some adaptation processes should be avoided as they bring additional problems in the long term, as in the case of an overexploitation of aquifer layers to compensate for the increase in temperature in farming and cattle activities (Galindo, 2009).

Within this context, the international literature includes a number of adaptation measures for different sectors:

  • In coastal zones the emphasis is placed on measures such as adjustments in construction regulations and improved coastal infrastructure;

 

  • In agriculture, new technologies can be adopted, new crops developed and insurance programmes introduced;

 

  • In biodiversity protected areas and biological corridors can be expanded, supervision programmes improved, along with laws and regulations;

 

  • As for water resources, improvements can be made to the infrastructure and management of the resource, along with the application of taxes and other economic instruments, while in the health sector improvements must be made to the infrastructure, prevention systems and information systems.

 

These measures may be classified in different ways, for example, in accordance with the Fankhauser classification (Fankhauser, 1988) it can be noticed that many of these adaptation measures correspond to public and/or private initiatives, applied both nationally and locally, while others correspond to technological or behavioural changes by agents. The body of evidence indicates that climate change represents one of the major challenges of this century and the transition towards sustainable development will be possible only if it is resolved.

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