BBC World, 30 August 2011. Central America produces “a very small portion of global emissions of greenhouse gases, but it is already one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change”, according to a new study by ECLAC, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.

If action is not taken soon, the region will suffer more intense droughts and hurricanes, warns the paper entitled “The Economics of Climate Change in Central America: Technical Report 2011”.

“We have accumulated more and more evidence of the high vulnerability of Central America because of its level of socio-economic development and its high exposure to climate variations during extreme events”, said Ms Julie Lennox, expert of the Climate Change Focal Point of the ECLAC sub-regional office in Mexico.

Ms Lennox, coordinator of the study, presented her findings in El Salvador, where according to the study, by 2100 the accumulated costs of hurricanes and losses in water resources, agriculture and biodiversity would account for the equivalent of 54% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Adaptive challenge
The study includes a range of possible scenarios. In the least optimistic scenario, should global emissions continue in line with current trends, temperatures in Central America could rise by 4.2ºC and average annual rainfall could decrease by 28% by the end of the century.

This means that “there will be more intense extreme weather events such as droughts and hurricanes, and part of these impacts will be felt in the economy” Agricultural production would also decrease and significant biodiversity and ecosystems losses would occur.
“We urgently need sustainable action”, said Ms Lennox. The study notes that “the challenge for adaptation by Central America is highly worrisome because it requires double efforts to reduce poverty, inequality and socio-economic and environmental vulnerability and increase societal resilience and the adaptive capacity of the society”.

The study also indicates that “the relatively young age of the region’s population and their cultural, ethnic, linguistic and lifestyle diversity is a treasure that requires greater recognition and investment in order to reassess and develop their responsive capacities”.

The study recommends an examination of adaptation policies which include poverty reduction programmes, integrated water management, decreased deforestation, transition to low carbon economies and protection of natural ecosystems, in addition to other considerations.

In the study participated 16 institutions from Central American countries, in addition to the Central American Commission on Environment and Development (CCAD) and the Secretariat of Central American Economic Integration (SIECA).
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