The available evidence reveals that climate change has economic and social consequences on biodiversity and, in general, on the well-being of the population, and will be one of the key factors in the style of development during the 21st century (IPCC, 2007; Stern, 2007). This evidence furthermore indicates that ecosystems and the set of economic activities, and hence the earnings of different groups, are sensitive among other factors to climate variability and evolution (ECLAC, 2009 and 2010). There is, thus, a growing concern at the effects of extreme climatic events associated, partially, with climate change on economic activities and social conditions.

Faced with such a scenario, countries will be required to dedicate simultaneous efforts to withstanding climate impacts and adapting to new climate conditions while, at the same time, structuring a coordinated process to mitigate greenhouse gases. This will be one of the characteristics which will shape the style of development in the 21st century.

To illustrate the above: to stabilise climate conditions at an increase in temperature of no more than 2°C would require that the current flow of emissions be halted, and reduced from 7 to 2 tonnes per capita over the next 40 years. This in turn demands the introduction of major changes to the current characteristics of the economic system and lifestyles, while also acknowledging the inevitability of such climate modifications in order to structure an active process of adaptation.

These processes must take into consideration the fact that climate change is characterised by a high level of uncertainty and the presence of asymmetric effects. In other words, those countries which historically have contributed a greater quantity of greenhouse gases are now those suffering the least damage, while those countries which have made a smaller contribution in the past are now suffering the greatest negative impacts. Against this backdrop, Latin America and the Caribbean face a dilemma in their immediate future: there is a positive association between per capita GDP, per capita energy consumption and per capita emissions accompanied by a discontinuous but still insufficient process of energy decoupling and reduced CO2 intensity in energy (see Graph, page 2). This will lead to a gradual increase in emissions which would be inconsistent with sustainable development.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the European Commission have been working with the countries of Latin America, within the context of the EUROCLIMA Programme, to strengthen capabilities and the generation of information for decision makers, revealing the social and economic impacts of climate change in the region, in particular on poverty, income distribution and vulnerability. Further information regarding the results so far achieved and the initiatives undertaken by the socio-economic component within the context of the EUROCLIMA Programme is available at: http://www.cepal.org/ccas.

Information by: Dr. Luis Miguel Galindo Climate Change Unit, Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.